Poll ratings, Schmoll ratings

I've tried to stay away from American politics in this blog because I don't think I have much to contribute that you can't find anywhere else. But since yesterday's special election in Massachusetts, lost by the Democrats, there has been a huge uptick in political idiocy that now I feel that even I can contribute something.

Basically, the Democratic party has a few hours (probably not more than 100) to show that it deserves being a major party. So far its reaction to the defeat is one of the most embarrassing things I've seen in politics (and, remember, I'm Colombian, I've seen a lot!)

Since the dust hasn't settled yet and the Democratic party may, against its best instincts, pull itself together and by dumb luck do the right thing, I'll comment on a related issue that actually predates the election: the allegedly alarming fall of Obama's approval rate.

A few days ago some wag said that with his approval ratings, Charlie Manson could defeat him. Baloney. The Democrats have nothing to fear so far about Obama's approval ratings. Let's see why.

At his inauguration he had approval ratings above 70%. But he won the election with something like 53% of the vote (as opposed to whatever people say to a pollster). Just like any other recently inaugurated president, he generated a lot of good will even among people who voted (again, voted, not responded to a poll) against him. That's normal. Now his approval ratings are comparable to the vote share he got. In essence he has alienated two types of people: some who voted for Mc Cain but were hoping against hope that he would not be a Democrat (what were they thinking?) and some to his left that got all worked up over the new Community-Organizer-in-Chief. 

This second group (and yes, that would include me if I had the right to vote) has nowhere to go. Many things would have to go horribly wrong for the Obama presidency for we to have a significant challenge from the left come 2012. In the US incumbent presidents run, period. So in 2012 it will be Obama vs. some variant of Palin-Limbaugh-Beck you name it. I wonder how many leftists will not vote for Obama in that contest. 

The first group could swing things against him if it were large enough. But so far it isn't. Again, Obama is still having above majority approval rates. And everybody else is doing much worse. It is fair to say that right now he is the most popular politician in the US and that, were the US to hold elections today he would win again. 

So, Dems, chill out! You're guy is still running the country and the country still loves him back. What the Democratic party cannot afford is to cripple his presidency with the kind of tantrum they're throwing today. Because if they do, not only they will lose, they will deserve to lose.